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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.