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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."